{"created":"2025-03-07T02:36:15.992351+00:00","id":2000751,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"2a363c5e-5ebe-423f-9031-8975e7ffe6be"},"_deposit":{"created_by":11,"id":"2000751","owner":"11","owners":[11],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"2000751"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:kagawa-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:02000751","sets":["2"]},"author_link":["4408"],"item_10001_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2021-02-23","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicNumberOfPages":"12","bibliographicVolumeNumber":"1","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"npj urban sustainability","bibliographic_titleLang":"en"}]}]},"item_10001_description_5":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"社会経済シナリオ（SSPs）と都市成長モデルを用い、今世紀中の世界約2万都市の人口を推定し，都市の高密化と大規模化の同時進行を展望した。持続可能な都市政策の検討に本成果の活用が期待される。","subitem_description_language":"ja","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"},{"subitem_description":"Future population projections of urban agglomerations furnish essential input for development policies and sustainability strategies. Here, working within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and using a simple urban-growth model, we estimate population trends throughout the 21st century for ~20,000 urban agglomerations in 151 countries. Our results suggest that urban growth in this century will produce increasingly concentrated cities, some growing to enormous sizes. We also demonstrate that, although detailed urbanization trajectories differ for different SSP scenarios, in all cases, the largest projected agglomerations of the future are more populous than the largest agglomerations today. Our projection strategy advances urban-population research by producing urban-size projections—for agglomerations around the world—that correctly obey empirically observed distribution laws. Although our method is very simple and omits various aspects of urbanization, it nonetheless yields valuable insight into long-term SSP-specific urbanization trends to inform discussion of sustainable urban policies.","subitem_description_language":"en","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_10001_publisher_8":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"Springer Nature","subitem_publisher_language":"en"}]},"item_10001_relation_12":{"attribute_name":"論文ID（NAID）","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_relation_type":"isIdenticalTo","subitem_relation_type_id":{"subitem_relation_type_id_text":"https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360580237018143616","subitem_relation_type_select":"CRID"}}]},"item_10001_rights_15":{"attribute_name":"権利","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_rights":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","subitem_rights_language":"en","subitem_rights_resource":"This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder."}]},"item_10001_source_id_9":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"2661-8001","subitem_source_identifier_type":"EISSN"}]},"item_10001_version_type_20":{"attribute_name":"著者版フラグ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_resource":"http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85","subitem_version_type":"VoR"}]},"item_1691368617353":{"attribute_name":"識別子","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_identifier_type":"DOI","subitem_identifier_uri":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-020-00007-5"}]},"item_1691372060236":{"attribute_name":"助成情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_award_numbers":{"subitem_award_number":"16KK0013","subitem_award_number_type":"JGN","subitem_award_uri":"https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16KK0013/"},"subitem_award_titles":[{"subitem_award_title":"世界都市モデルへのマイクロシミュレーション技術の導入と欧州・アジアへの適用可能性（国際共同研究強化）","subitem_award_title_language":"ja"},{"subitem_award_title":"Implementation of Microsimulation Technique in World Urban Model 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