@article{oai:kagawa-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00005813,
 author = {石川, 浩 and Ishikawa, Hiroshi and 谷本, 敏夫 and Tanimoto, Toshio and 木村, 等 and Kimura, Hitoshi and 篠塚, 正宣 and Shinozuka, Masanobu},
 issue = {2},
 journal = {香川大学経済論叢, Kagawa University economic review},
 month = {Oct},
 note = {An effort has been recently made by A.M. Freudenthal to estimate the fleet reliability based on the scatter factor defined as the ratio of the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter of the two-parameter Weibull distribution with a known shape parameter, assumedly describing the life distribution of structural elements or components, to the “time to first failure T₁” among a fleet of nominally identical elements or components subjected also to nominally identical operating conditions. Unfortunately, however, his definition of the fleet reliability R′ does not rigorously represent the true fleet reliability R to be defined theoretically as R=P[T₁≥ t₁⃰], where t₁⃰ is the service life (minimum life) specified for the fleet. Further, R′ in itself inherently involves a statistical nature and therefore needs to be deemed as an estimator of R., In this respect, a new estimator of R, designated by ^R in the case of known shape parameter, has been introduced in the present study. Statistical natures of R′ and ^R have been carefully examined and compared with the aid of Monte Carlo techniques, which has revealed the more advantage in using R in the reliability assessment rather than in using R′., The mathematical difficulty multiplies when the Weibull shape and scale parameters are both assumed to be unknown. However, this is undoubtedly the case which is consistent with engineering reality. For these conditions, therefore, the reliability estimators Ř and R″ have also been introduced as a natural extension of aforementioned ^R and R′, respectively. Procedures involving Monte Carlo techniques have been established to evaluate the statistical properties of these estimators. Simulated results show that Ř plays the more crucial role in the reliability-based design than R″. The effect of the size to be used in the fatigue test, of the fleet size and of the reliability level on the accuracy of such estimation has also been discussed., The fleet reliability can then be estimated based on either ^R in the case of known shape paIameter or Ř unknown shape. This satisfies the essential part of the requiIement in the reliabi1ity-based design of machines and structures.},
 pages = {487--535},
 title = {フリート信頼度の推定手法と信頼性設計},
 volume = {53},
 year = {1980},
 yomi = {イシカワ, ヒロシ and タニモト, トシオ and キムラ, ヒトシ and シノズカ, マサノブ}
}